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Abstract The recharge oscillator (RO) is a simple mathematical model of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In its original form, it is based on two ordinary differential equations that describe the evolution of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and oceanic heat content. These equations make use of physical principles that operate in nature: (a) the air‐sea interaction loop known as the Bjerknes feedback, (b) a delayed oceanic feedback arising from the slow oceanic response to winds within the equatorial band, (c) state‐dependent stochastic forcing from fast wind variations known as westerly wind bursts (WWBs), and (d) nonlinearities such as those related to deep atmospheric convection and oceanic advection. These elements can be combined at different levels of RO complexity. The RO reproduces ENSO key properties in observations and climate models: its amplitude, dominant timescale, seasonality, and warm/cold phases amplitude asymmetry. We discuss the RO in the context of timely research questions. First, the RO can be extended to account for ENSO pattern diversity (with events that either peak in the central or eastern Pacific). Second, the core RO hypothesis that ENSO is governed by tropical Pacific dynamics is discussed from the perspective of influences from other basins. Finally, we discuss the RO relevance for studying ENSO response to climate change, and underline that accounting for ENSO diversity, nonlinearities, and better links of RO parameters to the long term mean state are important research avenues. We end by proposing important RO‐based research problems.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available March 1, 2026
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Aims. Solar Orbiter (SolO) was launched on February 9, 2020, allowing us to study the nature of turbulence in the inner heliopshere. We investigate the evolution of anisotropic turbulence in the fast and slow solar wind in the inner heliosphere using the nearly incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (NI MHD) turbulence model and SolO measurements. Methods. We calculated the two dimensional (2D) and the slab variances of the energy in forward and backward propagating modes, the fluctuating magnetic energy, the fluctuating kinetic energy, the normalized residual energy, and the normalized cross-helicity as a function of the angle between the mean solar wind speed and the mean magnetic field ( θ UB ), and as a function of the heliocentric distance using SolO measurements. We compared the observed results and the theoretical results of the NI MHD turbulence model as a function of the heliocentric distance. Results. The results show that the ratio of 2D energy and slab energy of forward and backward propagating modes, magnetic field fluctuations, and kinetic energy fluctuations increases as the angle between the mean solar wind flow and the mean magnetic field increases from θ UB = 0° to approximately θ UB = 90° and then decreases as θ UB → 180°. We find that solar wind turbulence is a superposition of the dominant 2D component and a minority slab component as a function of the heliocentric distance. We find excellent agreement between the theoretical results and observed results as a function of the heliocentric distance.more » « less
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Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken in the 21st century due to increased surface buoyancy. Such AMOC changes in ocean models are often accompanied by a subsurface reduction in density. Here we perform freshwater perturbation experiments with both a 1° coupled model and an idealized zonally averaged ocean‐only model to demonstrate that slow subsurface property changes (1) introduce a negative feedback that erodes the stratification and partially reinvigorates convection and the AMOC and (2) ensure the meridional heat transport weakens less than the AMOC. In the coupled model with a 0.1‐Sv net freshwater flux introduced around Greenland, an initial 22% AMOC reduction over 40 years is followed by a recovery of almost half the lost strength after 400 years. The final heat transport, however, is weakened by only 7%. Similar responses in the idealized model demonstrate that 2‐D ocean‐only dynamics control the changes.more » « less
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Abstract In contrast to the modern‐day climate, North Pacific deep water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) may have been active during past climate conditions, in particular during the Pliocene epoch (some 3–5 million years ago). Here, we use a climate model simulation with a robust PMOC cell to investigate the pathways of the North Pacific deep water from subduction to upwelling, as revealed by Lagrangian particle trajectories. We find that similar to the present‐day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), most subducted North Pacific deep water upwells in the Southern Ocean. However, roughly 15% upwells in the tropical Indo‐Pacific Oceans instead—a key feature distinguishing the PMOC from the AMOC. The connection to the Indian Ocean is relatively fast, at about 250 years. The connection to the tropical Pacific is slower (∼800 years) as water first travels to the subtropical South Pacific then gradually upwells through the thermocline.more » « less
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Abstract The notion that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can have more than one stable equilibrium emerged in the 1980s as a powerful hypothesis to explain rapid climate variability during the Pleistocene. Ever since, the idea that a temporary perturbation of the AMOC—or a permanent change in its forcing—could trigger an irreversible collapse has remained a reason for concern. Here we review literature on the equilibrium stability of the AMOC and present a synthesis that puts our understanding of past and future AMOC behavior in a unifying framework. This framework is based on concepts from Dynamical Systems Theory, which has proven to be an important tool in interpreting a wide range of model behavior. We conclude that it cannot be ruled out that the AMOC in our current climate is in, or close to, a regime of multiple equilibria. But there is considerable uncertainty in the location of stability thresholds with respect to our current climate state, so we have no credible indications of where our present‐day AMOC is located with respect to thresholds. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge and proposing possible ways forward to address these gaps.more » « less
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